Articles by Paul

“Howay the Ladds Monthly Spotlight” – March 2022

When I consider my relatively short time in managing money, one thing I have learnt is that every year there are challenges. 2022 is no different. Some of the concerns include inflation, central banks, a China slowdown, and Ukraine / Russia. In May we will be sending out our rebalance packs and in advance of […]

The Connect 4 conundrum

There is an app to play Connect 4 I recently discovered and it’s great. Set the level to hard and give the computer the first counter and it’s a real challenge. You must try to work out what the opponent is trying to achieve and stymie that whilst achieving a winning strategy yourself. This seems […]

Ukraine

After months of heightening tensions Russia appears to be invading not just the separatist regions of Luhansk and Donetsk as many expected, but the whole of Ukraine. Source: CNBC What is puzzling to many is the very heavy price in terms of economic retaliation Russia will suffer and why this is deemed worth it. Putin’s […]

Tony Dwyer knows stuff

Tony Dwyer is one of the people who when he speaks, we listen. There aren’t that many, Tom Lee, Adam Parker, Brian Belski and Mike Wilson are others. He did an hour with the Josh Brown Podcast on Friday, and these are the key takeaways. He has a core thesis that he does not deviate […]

Comparing apples with apples

We listen to and talk with investment professionals most days. We can access the thoughts and analysis of the best. And in periods of volatility, they will do one of two things. They will either say “Pay no attention to macroeconomic noise, it doesn’t assist in generating long term outsized returns.” Or “This is how […]

The unruly dog theory

Trying to understand how markets react over short periods can be perplexing. A conundrum wrapped in a riddle of a black cat in a darkened room that maybe isn’t really there. This was demonstrated in early 2020 when the pandemic struck globally and markets around the world went into free fall. They fell 30%, a […]

It’s Deja Vu – All Over Again

The observation comes from the inimitable Yogi Berra; fabled baseball catcher for the New York Yankees (1946-’63). Firstly, yes, Yogi Bear really was named after him. Secondly, he was the absolute master of the nonsensical but still oddly profound sports saying. You just sort of knew what he meant. As examples: ‘When you come to […]

Pardon the interruption

Below is my take on the start on the year to now. An attempt to tease out the key elements as a guide to where we may be heading. I wrote this as a guide to myself and a reference for the team but it may be of some interest…….or not. Part 1 – from […]

Zig zag to the onion bag

Portfolios have recaptured the majority of their pre virus values and the last month has seen sectors previously thrown into the dumper in March, receiving some investor love. Too much short term love in some cases possibly, but certainly not in all. This seems like an apt time then to take stock and look ahead […]

You don’t say

In a world this crazy, this is pretty crazy. The value of the investment portfolios are broadly the same now as they were in March 2019. How can this be you ask? That’s a heck of a good question. We think an amalgam of contributing factors are playing a part, so this blog will attempt […]

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