As fads and phases in markets and economies come and go, the smouldering wreckage of once hyped ‘must have’ investments often lie in a worthless crumpled heap next to people muttering. ‘But I really thought this time was different’ It rarely is!
George and I spend many hours discussing the politics and economics of the world, with reference to where and how to most productively employ capital. We try, in doing this, to separate the personal from the strategic, so what I will write is not necessarily my own view on what would be best or honourable but rather an analysis of what we currently see as likely to happen and why.
It’s the story of the Fox and the Turtle. The last few days have finally seen Brexit go from the abstract to the very real and very fractious. There is now a divorce settlement on the table and very few like it, which was entirely predictable. As we have said previously, there are such divergently […]
October has been a rough month for all global stock markets, with some decent downturns from 2018 highs. This blog hopes to address the concerns currently weighing on market sentiment and to examine whether they are transitory and emotional, or more fundamental. The biggest global concern depending on who you listen to, is either: US […]
I’ve been sitting staring at a blank screen for half an hour trying to decide how I start this update. It’s been a fruitless attempt to boil down all that is currently playing out and that remains in flux, to establish a core narrative. Essentially what is the single central theme investors should be focused […]
Writing a year-end review of 2016 could focus entirely on the story of Brexit, or the unbelievable Trump victory; seek to understand the epic collapse of oil or consider the cultural influence of the many icons who have passed. Or most confounding of all, how the heck did Leicester City win the Premiership and did Gary Lineker’s football shorts constitute underwear on MOTD.
This feels a bit like Groundhog Day, doesn't it? We go to bed thinking one result is pretty much a done deal and wake up to the shocking reality that the opposite has happened.
This will (I promise) be the last of the BREXIT related articles for a time. The one area we haven't covered and which we've been asked about is, ok, so what happens now? With the proviso that what I'm going to write is going to be somewhere between a bit and a lot wrong in many regards, these are our thoughts.
There have been a number of significant events and announcements in the last ten days beyond the historic meltdown of the main political parties, and the resultant soap opera of betrayals and career assassinations that have dominated the news cycle.
The current bookmaking odds on a UK exit vote suggest only a slim chance of a Yes. There is still time of course for something like a terrorist outrage to shift sentiment but barring that, the consensus appears to be hardening towards the "better the devil you know" view.