The first quarter of 2019 started well with a significant rebound, after the sell-off in the last quarter of 2018. However, towards the end of March markets dropped backed slightly following weak economic data from Europe; in turn this fuelled concerns that we were closer to a global recession than the markets had priced in.
“Double, double, toil and trouble; fire burn and cauldron bubble” The expression “from hero to zero” springs to mind as I write this. At the start of 2018, the US Government was in shutdown unable to agree the budget, globally there were concerns over China, Trump, Brexit, trade wars, debt and a global recession. Although […]
It’s the story of the Fox and the Turtle. The last few days have finally seen Brexit go from the abstract to the very real and very fractious. There is now a divorce settlement on the table and very few like it, which was entirely predictable. As we have said previously, there are such divergently […]
October has been a rough month for all global stock markets, with some decent downturns from 2018 highs. This blog hopes to address the concerns currently weighing on market sentiment and to examine whether they are transitory and emotional, or more fundamental. The biggest global concern depending on who you listen to, is either: US […]
“The media perpetuates a myth that, if you’re smart enough, you can predict the market’s moves and avoid its downdrafts. But the reality is: no one can time the market.” – visualcaptilist.com The message remains; 2018 will be volatile and at times uncomfortable. It is interesting that when we meet fund managers the message seems […]
Warren Buffett was once asked how long people should stay in the market to which he replied “forever”. Hardly a day goes by without hearing or seeing that the current bull market will come to an end. The arguments are compelling; if we look at history we are in the longest bull market in modern […]
“I am not an optimist. I’m a very serious possibilist. It’s a new category where we take emotion apart and we just work analytically with the world” – Hans Rosling We can very easily get caught up with the here and now. Will Italy bring down the European dream, will Trump destroy global growth; is […]
“If you can solve your problem, then what is the need of worrying? If you cannot solve it, then what is the use of worrying?” – Shantideva Entering 2018, it was felt that momentum driving markets from mid-2016 was unlikely to continue, and the volatility which was absent in 2017 would return. As an observer […]
“Be fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful” – Warren Buffett 2017 surprised many – the year started with political trepidation in Europe, uncertainty over BREXIT and much debate on how long Trump would last. There was also a feeling that 2016 was a year of catch up after two previous […]
There are three factors I want to consider; longevity, destructive influences and monetary policy, and their impact on markets. Longevity is a challenge particularly in developed economies; in the 1930’s on average people spent 16 years in education and 44 years in work in the UK, life expectancy was to age 60. Providing a state pension and a health service for complex health issues was not a problem. Today life expectancy is age 80, with (on average) people spending 13 years plus in retirement, and this is expected to grow.