A key element of my job is meeting and talking to different investment managers. All managers will argue they are different but what really interests me is when a manager explains that short term noise is just that. If I asked people what the two key factors causing uncertainty in the world are, they would likely respond with Trade Wars and Brexit; the problem with this is that often we miss out on what is actually going on in the bigger picture.
“This will look like the maddest period of history” – Russell T Davies If you have watched the BBC Programme “Years and Years” you will be aware that it paints a rather bleak picture of how the future may play out. Starting in 2019, it travels over a period of ten years seeing the re-election […]
Neil Woodford is a star fund manager; at Invesco he ran several flagship funds and was the poster boy of the investment industry. As things appear to start to unravel it is worth perhaps just outlining the importance of research.
The first quarter of 2019 started well with a significant rebound, after the sell-off in the last quarter of 2018. However, towards the end of March markets dropped backed slightly following weak economic data from Europe; in turn this fuelled concerns that we were closer to a global recession than the markets had priced in.
“Double, double, toil and trouble; fire burn and cauldron bubble” The expression “from hero to zero” springs to mind as I write this. At the start of 2018, the US Government was in shutdown unable to agree the budget, globally there were concerns over China, Trump, Brexit, trade wars, debt and a global recession. Although […]
It’s the story of the Fox and the Turtle. The last few days have finally seen Brexit go from the abstract to the very real and very fractious. There is now a divorce settlement on the table and very few like it, which was entirely predictable. As we have said previously, there are such divergently […]
October has been a rough month for all global stock markets, with some decent downturns from 2018 highs. This blog hopes to address the concerns currently weighing on market sentiment and to examine whether they are transitory and emotional, or more fundamental. The biggest global concern depending on who you listen to, is either: US […]
“The media perpetuates a myth that, if you’re smart enough, you can predict the market’s moves and avoid its downdrafts. But the reality is: no one can time the market.” – visualcaptilist.com The message remains; 2018 will be volatile and at times uncomfortable. It is interesting that when we meet fund managers the message seems […]
Warren Buffett was once asked how long people should stay in the market to which he replied “forever”. Hardly a day goes by without hearing or seeing that the current bull market will come to an end. The arguments are compelling; if we look at history we are in the longest bull market in modern […]
“I am not an optimist. I’m a very serious possibilist. It’s a new category where we take emotion apart and we just work analytically with the world” – Hans Rosling We can very easily get caught up with the here and now. Will Italy bring down the European dream, will Trump destroy global growth; is […]