Portfolios have recaptured the majority of their pre virus values and the last month has seen sectors previously thrown into the dumper in March, receiving some investor love. Too much short term love in some cases possibly, but certainly not in all. This seems like an apt time then to take stock and look ahead […]

In a world this crazy, this is pretty crazy. The value of the investment portfolios are broadly the same now as they were in March 2019. How can this be you ask? That’s a heck of a good question. We think an amalgam of contributing factors are playing a part, so this blog will attempt […]

It is worth remembering, that at the start of the year the thought of any recession was perhaps 2 or 3 years away. Although global growth was expected to slow, 2020 was likely to be a good year for investors. Whatever anyone’s views on the word we no longer mention, a stable government in the […]

Howard Marks, a brilliant man, and hugely successful investor appeared on CNBC recently and was asked what he thought of the overall US market valuation. He answered that it was down 15%, but did that really represent how ‘screwed up’ the US economy is? The implication I think being no, it did not. Also, and […]

As lockdown gets extended, we continue to talk to investment professionals with the aim of sharing thoughts from the front line. We are writing up the fund manager meeting notes and hope to have those on the website by the end of month. Franklin (CIO Insight Series) Is this the same as the Great Depression? […]

As we go into the Easter Weekend, we suspect this is very different to what many were expecting. We continue to engage with fund managers and investment specialists and below are key messages from these discussions. Some interesting thoughts from GAM and Miton express this as a shock to the global economy and very different […]

This week we have spoken to over 10 fund managers and investment specialists. We are starting to see light, and some underlying themes emerge, which focus on the fact that when this passes, we will potentially have a different world. Schroders (Economic Team) High level thoughts: This is very different to any other recession; economic […]

From the carnage of the previous two weeks, this week has seen the US market (as one example) rise by 17% (early Friday). The last blog was titled ‘Darkest Before The Dawn’ and was written right at the point of maximum market capitulation and price declines. We felt the selling was panic driven and hugely […]

Thoughts from the frontline Invesco (Economic Team) They believe the three things to watch from countries are: Healthcare response, and how quickly it can be contained Monetary response Fiscal response China is the model to follow, and if you can get this right you have the potential to avoid a prolonged slowdown. Invesco do not […]

In volatile times, those offering opinions or projections have learned well that forecasting the worst of outcomes is a smart move. You hear most therefore, expounding pessimism. The 3 levels Working through the ramifications and implications of a set of circumstances is well achieved by following a process known as 3 Level Thinking: the highest […]