It’s Deja Vu – All Over Again

The observation comes from the inimitable Yogi Berra; fabled baseball catcher for the New York Yankees (1946-’63).

Firstly, yes, Yogi Bear really was named after him. Secondly, he was the absolute master of the nonsensical but still oddly profound sports saying. You just sort of knew what he meant.

As examples:

‘When you come to a fork in the road, take it”

“You observe a lot by watching”

And my favourite:

“The future just ain’t what it used to be”

There are many more. Towards the end of his life he said in an interview:

“Always go to other people’s funerals, if you don’t, they won’t come to yours”

LOTS OF FORKS, ALL AT ONCE

BREXIT started in 2016 and is finalised one way or other in the next month.

TRUMP was elected in 2016 and will either have four more years or be effectively gone in the next week.

We are locking down again from Thursday. The Chinese saying, ‘May you live in interesting times’ is not necessarily regarded there as a good thing; interesting can often be tough.

Acronyms are central to financial commentary over the last 10 years from BRIC (Brazil, Russia, India, China) to FANG (Facebook, Amazon, Netflix, Google)

So as shameful copyists we’ve made our own to sum up where we are currently.

B.L.E.A.C

‘B’ is for Brexit

If we are to believe the main sticking point remaining is fishing quotas then it’s reasonable conjecture that actually a deal is already in pla(i)ce, with both sides needing to look like they’re fighting furiously to the bitter end. Would it make any sense to blow it all up over haddock, probably not.

So give (Cod) Peace a chance we say.

‘L’ is for Lockdown

So, is this Deja vu all over again, with the Prime Minister’s announcement on Saturday?

No, it’s not, the lockdown is to stop people having a social life, it’s not to shut down the bulk of the economy. It’s what they probably wanted to do the first time and it’s what many countries will now do intermittently into the early part of next year. It’s going to make the next few months tough but by Spring ’21 we are in a profoundly better place.

‘E’ is for Election

The US election is a proper ‘fork in the road’ moment.

Biden looks likely to win but that’s not the only important part of the elections.

Biden is a Democrat, the Congress is controlled by Democrats and will remain so post election.

The Senate is Republican controlled but only narrowly and could well switch to Democrat.

If this happens it’s the much heralded ‘Blue Wave’ and will allow for massive new spending on relief and infrastructure.

Most of the time a US President has to contend with one or both of the houses (i.e. Congress; the House of Representatives and Senate) being controlled by the other side, which stymies major policies, as happened to Obama.

If Trump wins and the Democrats control both Houses it’s a very messy, unpleasant next 4 years.

‘A’ is for Antibody

The numerous phase 3 trials of vaccines and therapeutics are coming to an end, with Pfizer and Astra Zeneca strongly hinting at successful outcomes. A vaccine does not solve the problems straight away but will progressively ramp up in mitigation and by the Spring be a significant help.

‘C’ is for Community

This next phase of lockdowns will face much greater social resistance than the first. COVID is no longer felt by many to be dangerous for them so the restrictions will chafe.

Obviously this is about the community sticking together to protect the vulnerable, but there has been social unrest in Italy last week and it’s not likely the last instance.

CONCLUSION

There is so much to happen by the end of the year and so much current uncertainty, but I’m buoyed by my personal Pandemic guru Dr Scott Gottlieb who has said “It’s much closer to ending, the next few months will be tough, by Spring it’s a whole new ballgame and we will have a way better 2021”.

I leave you with confirmation that operation D.O.N.E is primed and ready.

(Donald Out Nicola Ecstatic)

To those who left lovely feedback to our blogs over the summer we say, ‘plethora’.

It means a lot.

Note: This is written in a personal capacity and reflects the view of the author. The post has been checked and approved to ensure that it is both accurate and not misleading. However, this is a blog, and the reader should accept that by its very nature many of the points are subjective and opinions of the author. Individuals wishing to buy any product or service as a result of this blog must seek advice or carry out their own research before making any decision, the author will not be held liable for decisions made as a result of this blog (particularly where no advice has been sought). Investors should also note that past performance is not a guide to future performance and investments can fall as well as rise.

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