Thoughts on Brexit

It’s the story of the Fox and the Turtle.

The last few days have finally seen Brexit go from the abstract to the very real and very fractious.

There is now a divorce settlement on the table and very few like it, which was entirely predictable.

As we have said previously, there are such divergently opposed camps and beliefs that any middle ground solution was never going to be acceptable to either those that voted remain, or those that are vehemently opposed to any residual elements of Euro control.

It’s quite difficult to work out whether the deal as proposed is actually about the best that’s realistically possible, because the amount of political noise is currently deafening.

A number of the main Conservative players are, it seems, primarily interested and engaged in working out how they individually position themselves to best career advantage.

Dominic Raab managed admirably to keep a straight face having negotiated a deal that he then said with solemnity, he was not able to support.

It is hard not to suspect he desires high office and has calculated that HMS T-MAY is going down, so disembarked ASAP.

This same political element will influence how all the main parties vote, they see the possibility of an early election and they want if possible, for that to happen.

Is this best serving their country at an important historical moment? No not really.

It’s the story of the Fox and the Turtle.

A fox asks a turtle to allow him to sit on his back to get across a river.

The turtle says, ‘I have to swim with my head out of my shell, and you may try to eat me.’

Fox says, ‘but that would be silly of me, I’d drown.’

The turtle agrees to take the fox.

Half way over the river the fox opens his jaws to bite the turtle’s head.

The turtle asks, ‘but I don’t understand, why?’

The fox replies:

‘I’m a Fox, it’s what we do.’

I guess the moral of the above as it relates to the current situation is.

Why are politicians behaving in such self-serving ways, when there is a need to serve the greater good?

“Because we’re politicians, it’s what we do”

INVESTMENT IMPLICATIONS

As we have been saying since before the original Brexit vote, what will be negative for the U.K. will not necessarily be negative for diversified global investments overall, because of the currency mix.

This is to say that the majority of holdings in global investments are denominated in other currencies such as dollars, euros, yen etc.

The markets will react to bad Brexit news by selling the pound; it will go lower against other currencies which means global investments rise in pound value because of this.

Equally the FTSE 100 will react in a broadly similar way because most companies have the majority of their earnings in other currencies, so these will be worth more in pound terms.

CONCLUSION

There is no way of knowing how this will all play out, it will certainly dominate the U.K. news for the foreseeable future but it is a U.K. problem, not a global one.

This is an example of why diversifying investments globally often insulates investors from localised issues, in this case Brexit.

We are watching everything that is occurring closely, but we know from history that whilst fraught and emotional situations are difficult and uncomfortable to endure, they do pass.

Note: This is written in a personal capacity and reflects the view of the author. The post has been checked and approved to ensure that it is both accurate and not misleading. However, this is a blog and the reader should accept that by its very nature many of the points are subjective and opinions of the author. Individuals wishing to buy any product or service as a result of this blog must seek advice or carry out their own research before making any decision, the author will not be held liable for decisions made as a result of this blog (particularly where no advice has been sought). Investors should also note that past performance is not a guide to future performance and investments can fall as well as rise.

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